Way-too-early prediction for the 53-man roster, no. 2

QBs

1. (Starter) Josh Freeman

2. (#2) Dan Orlovsky

A way, way, way too premature prediction for the Bucs' 53-man roster come Week 1

On the eve of the 2012 draft, I'm gonna throw together a very quick, extremely premature prediction of what the 53-man roster might look like when the season opener against the Panthers rolls around - depth chart included (where applicable).

A study in LeGarrette Blount's 2011 season, part two: Week 2 @ Vikings

1st Quarter

(14:55) 1st & 10: Blount lines up singleback, Freeman under center. Play is a dropback pass. Blount runs forward, sees Joseph being pushed back by the DT. Goes inside of Joseph, looking downfield - appears to be on the look out for a delayed blitz. Seeing all the LBs have bailed, he then turns back to see if Joseph needs help. He puts a hand on Joseph's back, as if trying to stop him being pushed back. Freeman is sacked by Jared Allen, who beats Penn on the play.

What could Blount have done better?


I'm not sure there's much he could have done. With the play unfolding as it did, you could say that he should have helped out Joseph straight away (even though ultimately that DT didn't make the play directly, when Freeman saw Joseph being pushed back into him, Freeman scrambled left directly into Allen). However, what if there had been a blitzing LB? If Blount had gone straight up to help out Joseph and someone was coming late, they would have had a clear shot on Freeman. Blount therefore did the right thing. By the time he did go to help out Joseph, he was the wrong side of him to get any hands on the DT, so you can't really fault Blount on this play for anything in particular.

A study in LeGarrette Blount's 2011 season, part one: Week 1 vs. Lions

Before we start, a quick note about format. As with the Mike Williams study, I will be using a double line to separate between series', like this:

==========================================

However, because I'm looking deeper into Blount on this occasion, I'll be separating between plays, as well I'll separate between them with three dashes, like this:

---

The reason for going deeper is because the running game is so very much dependent on the offensive line. It's also not as simple as receivers, who either are open or covered. Rather, I'll be looking and seeing what Blount could have done better, and whether he did badly, or well, on a play because of the blocking in front of him, or his own actions on each play.

Lastly, Mike Williams was in on an very high percentage of plays. Blount, I imagine, was not. As a result, I'll only talk about down & distance, and time left on the game clock, on plays when Blount is in or out, rather than almost every single play as I did with Williams, regardless of whether Williams was in or not.

Think that's about it. As usual, any comments or complaints can be left in the comments or, more likely to get you a response, tweet me at @FredTheGur.

On with the show.

A study in Mike Williams: the conclusion

So, I've now gone through all thirty-two regular season games of Mike Williams' pro career. In 2010, he was an electrifying receiver, setting a new franchise record for single-season receiving touchdowns, and becoming the first wideout since Randy Moss to have double digit receiving touchdowns in his rookie year.

In 2011, Williams had nowhere near the level of production he had as a rook. The only measurable statistic where there was an marked improvement was he cut the number of fumbles he had from 3 in 2010 to 2 in 2011. It's especially easy to compare and contrast the two seasons on paper pretty easily as he had 65 receptions in both years, allowing people to easily point that, with the same number of catches, he had 193 less yards (which breaks down to 2.9 yards per reception, or 12.1 yards per game, fewer), and even more notably, 8 less touchdowns. So what explains the slump?

The answer cannot be found in stats, but in game film. I've given as accurate a report as I can of what the game film shows of Mike Williams, and have already shared on Twitter what I think some of the major contributing factors to his slump have been, but will repeat and elaborate on them here.

A study in Mike Williams, part thirty two - the final chapter: 2011 Week 17 @ Falcons

1st Quarter

(8:12) 1st & 10: Williams lines up wide left. Runs up and blocks a CB. (Run play)

(7:38) 2nd & 8: Williams lines up wide right. Runs a slant route. (Run play)

(6:56) 3rd & 6: Williams lines up wide left. Runs a go route. Freeman is sacked. (Williams was covered)

=================================================================

(3:24) 1st & 10: Williams lines up wide left. Runs a post route. Freeman throws to Briscoe but the pass is intercepted. (Williams was open)

A study in Mike Williams, part thirty one: 2011 Week 16 @ Panthers

1st Quarter

(10:07) 1st & 10: Williams lines up wide right. Runs downfield then looks to block a CB. (Run play, fumble, Panthers recover)

===========================================================

(8:27) 1st & 10: Williams lines up tight left. Runs an out route then turns back inside to look for the ball. Freeman scrambles. Penalty flags. Offsides by Carolina. (Williams was open once he turned back inside)

(8:04) 1st & 5: Williams lines up wide left. Runs a slant route. (Run play)

(7:32) 2nd & 5: Williams lines up wide right. Runs up to a CB and blocks him. (Run play)

(6:54) 1st & 10: Williams lines up wide left. Blocks a CB. (Run play)

(6:11) 2nd & 2: Williams lines up wide left. Runs down a curl route. Freeman throws to him. The ball is a little behind Williams but still unquestionably catchable. The ball sails through Williams' hands.